Season density ratings for every region, built from field survey data and a decade of weather, on official USGS topographic maps across Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas.
Fall bird numbers are made in spring and summer: residual cover from last year, winter severity, nesting-season moisture, cold rain at hatch, and whether the brood-rearing months stayed wet enough to hold insects. We track that chain for every region and turn it into one rating you can act on.
The ratings rest on field survey data. Our weather model runs alongside them, labeled experimental, and is only promoted where it can be shown to match.
Prior-summer cover, winter severity, April to May moisture and warmth, cold-rain days in the hatch window, brood-season drought and heat, each scored against the 1991 to 2020 normal for that cell.
Temperature, wind, precipitation, fresh snow, and the last seven days of rain for the day you pick, scored for huntability and bird behavior.
Good, moderate, or bad per species per cell. A bad production year never becomes good because today is a nice day. Click any cell for the full chain with evidence grades.
Every year of density index on file, normalized to the region's own ten-year mean so a North Dakota district and an Iowa region read on the same scale. Each year carries the cause behind the change. Pick a state, region, and species; hover or tap a year for the index and the cause.
The indices are not interchangeable. A pheasant per mile in South Dakota, a pheasant per 30-mile route in Iowa, and a percent change in mail-carrier counts in Nebraska are different instruments. Normalizing to each state's own ten-year mean is what makes them comparable on one chart.
| State | Metric and unit | How density is measured | Updated | Notes |
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South Dakota discontinued its 1949-era brood survey in June 2020 without public comment, after commissioners said low headline counts deterred hunters; no abundance index exists from 2020 on and the series here stops at 2019 . Iowa flags survey-morning dew and sun on every report: medium-dew mornings count about a third fewer birds than heavy-dew mornings, and 2026 was the first year with a formal detection correction. Where a year's row carries a survey-conditions note, it is shown beside the number.
Season outlooks usually arrive in late August, after most lodges are full. We are building the earlier signal. Leave an address and we will tell you when it is ready.